2017: The year that will be in N.J. politics - NJ.com

TRENTON -- It can't be disputed: 2016 was a wild year in national politics.

Now that the calendar has turned to 2017, it's New Jersey's turn for drama. 

Gov. Chris Christie is nearing the end of his second and final term with vows to go out fighting, a gubernatorial election is set to kick into full gear, and every seat in the the state Legislature will be on the ballot this November. 

"I don't think the governor's going to be in a holding pattern," state Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R-Union) said.

The prediction is easily reinforced by the governor's own comments. In recent months, Christie has repeated: "I'm going to go out the same way I came in: loud."

And there are enough issues looming over the state for Christie to get loud about.

The governor already promised to make passing legislation that could gut legal notices from newspaper -- which sparked a public fight between Christie and the state's newspaper advocates and editorial writers -- his "top priority" in the new year. That, along with the possibility he will again pitch New Jerseyans his controversial school funding formula, already means 2017 could be a raucous year.

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"Tell you something, everybody, there's is nothing more dangerous than a second-term governor who is term-limited," Christie said in September while pitching people on school funding proposal he dubbed "the fairness formula."

"I am so freed up," the Republican governor added. "I don't have to be on the ballot in 2017, which means all I have time to do is do my job, and politically, create mischief."

And Republican lawmakers appear eager to send the fight over school funding to the Democrats who control the Legislature.

"One-third of the budget goes to school funding and I think the Democrats have an obligation to move some of this money around districts. That's the only way we're going to lower property taxes," Bramnick said.

"How do you let the Democratic Party get away with not doing any changes to school funding?" he said. "The governor came out with a plan: equal funding for every student. I understand that's unlikely to fly. But that doesn't let the Democrats off the hook."

As for the Democrats, there's the appetite or willingness to take on the issue.

"Fixing the school funding formula been a pretty big issue of mine for two years. I'm going to be very aggressive on it," state Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D-Gloucester) said.

But there's more work to be done before there can be a compromise.

Sweeney wants to spend $500 million more on school funding to give all school districts 100 percent of what they are owned under the state's funding formula, while Christie is calling for a drastic school aid overhaul that would give every district equal funding per student. 

Both plans would have winner and losers, but Christie's proposal would reallocate hundreds of millions more in school and shift funding from urban districts in exchange for property tax relief in suburban districts.

What's more, the Assembly failed to take up Sweeney's measure.

"It's sitting in the Assembly," Sweeney said. "Pretty much we're in a situation where a couple school districts are being protected at the expense of a super-majority of districts. I'm not going to let go on it. That is absolutely my top priority."

Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson) said he plans to "start moving forward" on school funding.

But, Prieto added, "the other funding formulas have issues."

While Christie promises to fight bring the fight to legislators and the disagreements among Democratic leadership on a plan sets the stage for a battle, New Jersey political observers predict otherwise.

"It'll sort of be in a holding pattern until we see who the next leaders are going to be," said Krista Jenkins, director of Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll.

Others agree.

"I don't think anything's gonna get done for a year," said Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University. "I think this whole year will be waiting for the next governor."

In that area, there's no shortage of people interested in running.

"I think it's going to be a fantastic race of John Corzine versus Chris Christie," Hale quipped, referring to the the current frontrunners.

Democrat Phil Murphy and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, a Republican who has yet to announce whether she'll run, are the favorites to clinch their party's nominations.

But neither is a sure thing, despite Murphy having the odds in Democratic-heavy New Jersey, a state that's soured on its incumbent GOP governor.

"The press will vet him. We'll have to see what comes out," said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.

"It's not like Democrats can't screw this up. It's not over," Dworkin added. "A week is a lifetime in politics, and we have a lot of weeks before the election."

But more than a dozen candidates could still end up vying to succeed Christie. On the Democratic side, retired firefighter and activist Bill Brennan, pharmaceutical sales rep Monica Brinson, former priest Bob Hoatson, former U.S. Treasury official Jim Johnson, state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, newsletter publisher Lisa McCormick, Iraqi War veteran and banker Titus Pierce, and Assemblyman John Wisniewski are vying for their party's nomination. State Investment Council Chairman Tom Byrne is also mulling whether to launch a campaign.

On the Republican side, Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-Somerset), Ocean County businessman Joseph Rullo and Nutley township commissioner Steve Rogers are in the race. Meanwhile, comedian, actor, and former "Saturday Night Live" cast member and the current host of a morning drive radio show, Joe Piscopo, is flirting with a run. So is Evesham Mayor Randy Brown.

Pastor Seth Kaper-Dale is running as a Green Party candidate and dental hygienist Karese Laguerre is running as an independent. 

But if 2017 politics is going to upstage 2016, there's a lot that needs to happen.

"It was the craziest year in politics in my life," Hale said.

"Everything seemed to get upended," he added. "All of the conventional wisdom about what it takes to win went out the window. I don't know if this is the new normal." 

Matt Arco may be reached at marco@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MatthewArco or on Facebook.

Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @johnsb01.